A major new poll has suggested that the Conservatives’ grip on Norfolk teeters in the balance, with several seats within grasping distance of Labour. 

A survey of 14,110 people, commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance, made of a group of Tory donors, and carried out by YouGov, shows a near 1997-style landslide for Labour, who would win some 385-seats. 

The Conservatives meanwhile would slump to just 169, losing 196 seats compared to 2019. 

While major loses are predicted for the Tories, much of Norfolk is expected to stay blue, albeit on incredibly fine margins.  

Comparing 2019 and future elections is difficult, with new boundaries being established. Polling is based on the new boundaries. 

Eastern Daily Press: Former Conservative candidate Nick Rose (front, centre) Former Conservative candidate Nick Rose (front, centre) (Image: Norwich Conservatives)

Norwich North  

Norwich North is anticipated to be the only Labour gain from the Tories in the county.

The Conservatives have struggled to find a candidate to replace Chloe Smith, with their first choice, Nick Rose, dropping out following a series of rows over comments he made on climate change, transgender issues and immigration. 

The seat has been Tory since 2009, when Ms Smith took it at a by-election.

Since then, the margins between her and Labour have been tight, particularly in 2017 when she took it with just 1.1pc more of the vote.

Labour - 47pc 

Conservatives – 30pc 

Reform – 8pc 

Green – 7pc 

Lib Dem – 6pc 

Other - 2pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Clive LewisClive Lewis (Image: Kate Wolstenholme)

Norwich South  

Labour is expected to hold on to Norwich South, Clive Lewis’ seat, with a majority of 51pc –down from 53.7pc in 2019. 

Labour – 51pc 

Conservative – 18pc 

Green – 13pc 

Liberal Democrat – 10pc 

Reform UK – 7pc 

Other - 2pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Brandon LewisBrandon Lewis (Image: PA Wire/PA Images)

Great Yarmouth 

While the Tories' Sir Brandon Lewis is tipped to hold on to Great Yarmouth, YouGov anticipates this will be an incredibly tight contest, with both major parties on 34pc. 

Sir Brandon has been a controversial figure in recent months, with concerns raised over whether he is paying enough attention to his constituency after taking on a string of extra jobs.

If a small number of people predicted to vote for an alternative party switch their vote to Labour, it could narrowly turn the seat red. 

The Tories have narrowly managed to hold on to the district council in 2023, with 19 seat to Labour’s 18. 

Conservatives – 34pc 

Labour – 34pc 

Reform – 15pc 

Greem – 8pc 

Lib Dem – 6pc 

Other – 3pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Poppy Simister-Thomas (centre) will stand for the Conservatives in South NorfolkPoppy Simister-Thomas (centre) will stand for the Conservatives in South Norfolk (Image: South Norfolk Conservatives)

South Norfolk 

The narrow margins on which South Norfolk is expected to stay blue will come as a surprise to many, with just 2pc in it. 

Like Great Yarmouth, some tactical voting could see the seat turn red. 

The constituency has not returned a candidate from another party since 1945, when Labour’s Christopher Mayhew was victorious. 

The Tories have selected a new candidate to fight for the seat, Poppy Simister-Thomas. She replaces Richard Bacon who has held it since 2001.

South Norfolk is one of the areas to see some big boundary changes, with areas like Wymondham transferred over from Mid Norfolk, while other areas, like Diss, would be handed over to a new “Waveney Valley” seat. 

Conservative – 34pc 

Labour – 32pc  

Lib Dem – 15pc 

Reform – 9pc 

Green – 8pc 

Other – 2pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Broadland MP Jerome MayhewBroadland MP Jerome Mayhew (Image: Archant 2022)

Broadland and Fakenham 

Another seat which will see boundary changes, Broadland and Fakenham is expected to stay true-blue. 

Broadland has only ever returned Conservative candidates since it was created in 2010 and the distance between the leading party and Labour stands at 8pc. 

The incumbent is Jerome Mayhew, who will fight the next election.

The seat includes Acle, Aylsham, Brundall and Taverham. 

Conservative – 36pc 

Labour – 28pc 

Lib Dem – 17pc 

Reform – 11pc 

Green – 6pc 

Other – 2pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Mid Norfolk MP George FreemanMid Norfolk MP George Freeman (Image: Archant)

Mid Norfolk 

Mid Norfolk has been consistently Tory since it was established in 1983 and the next election looks set to be no different. 

However, the distance between the incumbent George Freeman and his nearest competitor is expected to be much closer than in 2019, where he got 62.4pc of the vote, versus Labour’s 22.2pc. 

The seat includes Dereham, Attleborough and Watton, but will no longer include Wymondham. 

Conservative – 36pc 

Labour – 29pc 

Reform – 14pc 

Lib Dem – 12pc 

Green – 7pc 

Other – 3pc 


Eastern Daily Press: James Wild, MP for North West NorfolkJames Wild, MP for North West Norfolk (Image: Richard Townshend Photography)

North West Norfolk

The constituency has been in Conservative control since 2001.  

When Tory James Wild, who will be standing again, won the seat in 2019, he increased the majority from 13,788 to 19,922, taking nearly 67pc of the vote.  

Before Mr Wild, the seat was held by Sir Henry Bellingham. 

Labour’s George Turner held the seat for one term between 1997 and 2001. 

The YouGov poll shows the tightest race since that election, when there was just 2.3pc in it. 

The seat includes King’s Lynn, Brancaster and Burnham Market. 

Conservative – 36pc 

Labour- 31pc 

Reform – 13pc 

Lib Dem – 9pc 

Green – 7pc 

Other – 2pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Liz Truss, MP for South West NorfolkLiz Truss, MP for South West Norfolk

South West Norfolk 

How close Labour are to claiming Liz Truss’ seat is a considerable turnaround from the last election. 

YouGov has predicted just 7pc between the incumbent and Labour. In 2019 there was a 50.9-point difference between the two groups. 

Whether voters will vote tactically in an attempt to punish the former PM following her brief period in office remains to be seen. 

The seat includes Downham Market, Emneth and Tilney. 

Conservative – 37pc  

Labour – 30pc 

Reform – 15pc 

Lib Dem – 9pc 

Green – 7pc  

Other – 3pc 


Eastern Daily Press: Duncan Baker the MP for North NorfolkDuncan Baker the MP for North Norfolk (Image: Archant)

North Norfolk 

The seat remains the Lib Dems greatest hope of gaining a seat in the next election, with 3pc between them and the Tories. 

North Norfolk was held by the Lib Dems’ Norman Lamb from 2001 to 2019 and the district council has been run by the party since  

Tactical voting by Labour members could oust the Tories’ Duncan Baker from the seat, which includes Cromer, Sheringham and Holt. 

Conservative – 35pc 

Lib Dem – 32pc 

Labour – 17pc 

Reform – 11pc 

Green – 4pc 

Other – 2pc 


Waveney Valley 

The polls will disappoint many in the Green party, who have picked the new seat as a key battleground.  

YouGov currently predicts the Conservatives to hold on, with Labour battling for second place.  

Waveney Valley covers Diss, Harleston and Bungay as well as rural areas of Suffolk. 

Conservative – 34pc 

Labour – 25pc 

Green – 19pc 

Reform – 11pc 

Lib Dems – 9pc 

Other – 2pc 



Much of the existing Waveney seats will transfer over to the new Lowestoft seat. 

While most of the seat is in Suffolk, this does include areas like Beccles, which straddles the Norfolk border.  

Other than Norwich North, it is the only other seat set to change hands in Norfolk and Suffolk, narrowly being taken Labour. 

Labour – 35pc 

Conservative – 34pc 

Reform – 14pc  

Green – 8pc 

Lib Dem – 7pc 

Other – 3pc