East Anglia faces "severe water shortages" by 2050 unless urgent action is taken by all users and abstractors, warns a major cross-sector report.
Water Resources East (WRE) has published the first full draft of its regional water resources plan for Eastern England.
The independent body - whose members include water companies, public authorities, conservation bodies, farming unions and abstractor groups - has been tasked by the government to find ways of addressing a predicted water deficit in the next 30 years.
It says the entire region is designated as "seriously water stressed" and climate change is already taking hold - illustrated by recent hot summers and this year's drought.
Between 2025 and 2050, the demand for water will rise by 14.3pc from 2,135 to 2,441Ml/d (millions of litres per day), driven by the needs for irrigation, energy production and population growth, says the report.
But, over the same period, factors including climate change and environmental constraints on abstraction are forecast to reduce the available water by 21.7pc, from 2,300 to 1,800Ml/d - forcing the region into a significant deficit.
"Unless urgent action is taken by all sectors, the region will face severe water shortages," says the report. "This will constrain agricultural production and curtail economic growth, impacting the region’s prosperity and endangering the east’s iconic chalk rivers, peatlands and wetlands.
"Farmers and land managers, businesses, the power sector and water companies need to start planning for and investing in significant new sources of supply.
"All of us, as individuals and across sectors, will need to use water more efficiently."
For public water supply, which accounts for 85pc of demand, the report says measures such as leakage control and demand management would meet a quarter of the sector's forecast deficit.
The remaining shortfall could be met with strategic investments including two major new reservoirs located in South Lincolnshire and the Cambridgeshire Fens, effluent reuse projects and, in the longer-term, aquifer storage and desalination.
Both of Anglian Water's reservoir projects - expected to cost between £1bn and £2bn each - are currently undergoing public consultations.
The report says Anglian Water is investing £900m in delivering its latest resources management plan for 2020-2025, eight times higher than in the investment period 2015-2020.
But, unlike the region’s four water companies, farming and other abstractors do not have an established means to work together on long-term water resource planning, it says.
To enable the necessary collaboration, it recommends funding needs to be provided to WRE to enable it "to carry out fully multi-sector, integrated water resources planning at the catchment and regional scales". One potential source of funding could come from abstractor licence fees, it adds.
For farming abstractors and agri-food businesses, WRE says supply deficits will likely need to be met through a combination of water efficiency and rainwater harvesting, bilateral agreements with water companies for access to the public water supply or treated effluent for non-potable water uses - and investment in new on-farm winter storage reservoirs.
Such projects can take years to secure approval and complete construction, reinforcing the need for farmers to be given sufficient information and prior warning of any abstraction licence changes by the Environment Agency, says WRE.
The report adds that funding needs to be found to allow local abstractor groups to grow and develop, and all these measures require "support from multiple agencies and across government departments to be successful".
And to achieve the required environmental goals, WRE says investigations carried out between now and 2030 will define the specific needs of the region’s most sensitive water-dependent environments such as chalk rivers, wetlands and headwaters.
In the report's executive summary, Dr Paul Leinster, chairman of Water Resources East, says a collaborative approach is needed to meet all these challenges.
"If we get this right, it will help improve the management of water resulting in the restoration, protection and improvement of the environment, and facilitate environmentally sustainable agricultural and economic growth in the Eastern region and nationally for many generations to come," he says.
WRE is gathering feedback on its draft plan and is due to present its final regional plan in autumn 2023.
Farming industry response
Farming leaders backed WRE's call for funding to allow cross-sector planning of water resources for agri-food and farming abstractors.
Kelly Hewson-Fisher, water resources specialist for the National Farmers' Union (NFU), said: "We need better understanding of the requirements of the sector, including how much water is required and what solutions are available to provide that.
"There is a recognition within the draft regional plan that this is the start of the process for multi-sector planning and that much more work needs to be done to better understand sector needs and solutions.
"The NFU supports the multi-sector approach and the collaboration to secure water resources for the future for the agri sector."
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