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Major poll predicts Conservatives will take marginal Norfolk seats and sweep to power

PUBLISHED: 07:01 28 November 2019 | UPDATED: 09:08 28 November 2019

Conservative North West Norfolk candidate James Wild. Picture: Ally McGilvray

Conservative North West Norfolk candidate James Wild. Picture: Ally McGilvray

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A major new poll has suggested the Conservatives could turn Norfolk and Waveney almost completely blue - including in two close-fought marginal seats.

A major new poll has suggested the Conservatives could turn Norfolk and Waveney almost completely blue - including in two close-fought marginal seats.

The poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times newspaper, also suggests Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party could win just 211 seats, and that Boris Johnson's party will end up with a 68-seat majority.

In the county's two tightest seats, the poll predicts that the Conservatives will retain Norwich North, and pick up North Norfolk.

The results:

South Norfolk Conservative candidate Richard Bacon Photo: UK ParliamentSouth Norfolk Conservative candidate Richard Bacon Photo: UK Parliament

Norwich North

In the 2017 election, the Norwich North seat was held by Conservative Chloe Smith, by a slim majority of 507. According to the YouGov survey she will retain the seat again, with a 47.2pc share of the vote compared to the 39.87pc of Labour's Karen Davis.

Norwich South

Labour's Clive Lewis has held Norwich South since the 2015 election. In 2017, the YouGov survey suggested he would hold his seat, but the Conservatives would close the gap. However, he ended up increasing his majority. According to YouGov's poll this time, he will hold the seat with 51.62pc of the vote share, compared to the 27.55pc of second-placed Conservative Dr Mike Spencer.

Waveney Suffolk Conservative candidate Peter Aldous Photo: UK ParliamentWaveney Suffolk Conservative candidate Peter Aldous Photo: UK Parliament

North Norfolk

Long held by the Liberal Democrats' Norman Lamb, the polls suggest North Norfolk could turn blue this December, after the former MP announced he was leaving politics last month.

According to the latest YouGov survey results, Tory candidate Duncan Baker will beat Lib Dem Karen Ward to the constituency seat, with a 45.94 vote share, compared to her 39.87pc.

South Norfolk

Labour candidate for Norwich (South) Clive Lewis at the Fridays for Future climate protest on the steps of city hall in Norwich. Picture: Neil DidsburyLabour candidate for Norwich (South) Clive Lewis at the Fridays for Future climate protest on the steps of city hall in Norwich. Picture: Neil Didsbury

South Norfolk has backed the Conservatives in past elections, and the polls suggest voters will continue to do so next month. Tory candidate Richard Bacon is predicted to take 53.71pc in the latest YouGov poll.

Great Yarmouth

The poll indicates Conservative candidate Brandon Lewis will hold his seat in Great Yarmouth, with 59.2pc of the vote share. Labour's Mike Smith-Clare would come second with 28.21pc of the vote share.

South West Norfolk

Conservative candidate Elizabeth Truss looks set to hold her seat in South West Norfolk, scooping 62.5pc of votes in the Brexit-backing constituency.

North West Norfolk

Following the resignation of Conservative MP Henry Bellingham, polls suggest James Wild, beaten in North Norfolk last time around, will hold North West Norfolk for the Tories with 61.23pc of votes.

Mid Norfolk

Jerome Mayhew, managing director of Go Ape, is the Conservative candidate for Broadland. Picture: SUPPLIED.Jerome Mayhew, managing director of Go Ape, is the Conservative candidate for Broadland. Picture: SUPPLIED.

The poll predicts another victory for Conservative candidate George Freeman, with the YouGov poll estimating a 58pc share of the vote for him.

Broadland

Voters in Broadland are predicted to follow the county trend, with Conservative candidate Jerome Mayhew winning a 56.15pc share of the vote in the poll. Labour's Jess Barnard would come second with just under 22pc and Lib Dem Ben Goodwin third with 16.72pc. Veteran Keith Simpson has stood down from the Conservative seat he had long-held.

Waveney

Karen Davis the Norwich North Labour candidate. Picture: Ella WilkinsonKaren Davis the Norwich North Labour candidate. Picture: Ella Wilkinson

Conservative Peter Aldous is predicted to hold his seat with 56.75pc of the vote.

The YouGov research saw approximately 100,000 panellists interviewed about their voting intentions in the 2019 General Election.

However, because, on average, that is only 150 voters per constituency, to come up with estimates for each constituency YouGov used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP).

Duncan Baker, Conservative candidate in North Norfolk. 
Picture: SUPPLIED BY THE CANDIDATEDuncan Baker, Conservative candidate in North Norfolk. Picture: SUPPLIED BY THE CANDIDATE

The idea behind MRP is that poll data from the preceding seven days is used to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party.

Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency.

Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce estimates of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party.

In 2017, when it was applied to the UK general election, YouGov correctly predicted 93pc of individual seats as well as the overall hung parliament result.

Great Yarmouth Norfolk Conservative candidate Brandon Lewis Photo: UK ParliamentGreat Yarmouth Norfolk Conservative candidate Brandon Lewis Photo: UK Parliament

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