Expert says winter will be better than last year, despite Covid case rise

But a Norfolk virus expert, while concerned over the rise in people with Covid-19 who need hospital treatment, remains optimistic levels will not get as bad as they did last winter.

Covid cases in the UK are at their highest level for almost three months, with the seven-day average standing at 44,145 cases per day.

Hospital admissions and deaths are also slowly creeping up, though vaccines are still preventing severe disease.

Latest figures for Norfolk, for the seven days up to Wednesday, October 13 showed case rates had increased by 31pc.

They increased from just under 331 cases per 100,000 in the week up to Wednesday, October 6 to 433.8 cases per 100,000. That was above the England average of 424.

Case rates in South Norfolk went up 47pc to 555.7 cases per 100,000, up from 378.1 - a new record high for the district.

North Norfolk had the highest percentage increase, up 73pc from 177.8 per 100,000 to 307.1.

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In Broadland, case rates were up 50pc, from 311.5 per 100,000 to 466.2

Norwich case rates were up 22pc, from 310.2 per 100,000 to 377, while Breckland's increase from 347.6 per 100,000 to 438.2 was a rise of 26pc.

King's Lynn and West Norfolk went up 16pc, from 357 to 412.6 per 100,000. Great Yarmouth case rates went up by 10pc, from 416.3 to 456.7 per 100,000.

As of Thursday, October 14 there were 58 people in Norfolk's hospital, who had tested positive for Covid-19 - five in critical care. That was up slightly on the 55 as of Tuesday, October 12.

Secondary school pupils take Covid lateral flow tests at home twice a week. (Image: PA)

Cases among schoolchildren in Norfolk are still climbing. There were 1,112 cases among 10 to 14 year olds in the week ending Wednesday, October 13.

Downing Street has said it is keeping a "very close eye" on increasing Covid-19 case rates.

Prof Paul Hunter. (Image: UEA)

Virus expert Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, said it was concerning that rates were going up among more vulnerable groups.

He said that was due to a "raft of reasons", including that viruses tend to spread more easily in autumn and winter.

He said: "I think some of it is due to waning vaccine coverage and waning immunity from those who had been infected."

He said there was a "big question" over the role which a new descendant of the Delta variant - AY.4.2 - is having on infections, saying there is not enough data to be clear on its impact.

He said: "That might be contributing, but maybe not that much. It's difficult to know yet, but that could increase transmission a bit.

"The big question is what's going to happen next and the truth is we are not altogether sure.

"What we do know is that Scotland had a spike in August and that has now levelled off, so it's possible that the same thing could happen here. I think that's more likely than not, but I am not totally confident.

"The fact that hospitalisations are rising is concerning. At the moment there is not much flu around, but if we got hit hard by that, it could be even more of a problem than Covid."

But Prof Hunter was optimistic this winter would not be as bad as last year.

He said: "I am still confident that we are getting through it. This winter won't be as bad as last year and next year will not be as bad as this winter."

Booster jabs are being rolled out in the UK, and 30,000 had been given in Norfolk and Waveney as of last Tuesday.

NHS Norfolk and Waveney Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) said it was not able to provide more up to date information or to break that figure down further at this point.

But health bosses are encouraging people who are invited to get a booster jab to take up the offer.

A CCG spokesperson said: “We want to make sure that the most vulnerable people maintain high levels of protection against Covid-19 as we go into winter.

"The NHS is contacting everyone who is eligible for a booster to invite them to make an appointment; as soon as you are contacted by the NHS, you can make an appointment for a booster via the National Booking Service NBS if you are in an eligible group."