Opinion: We're running out of fuel - but the property market isn't!

A portrait of happy young family with a toddler girl moving in new home.

The spike in the housing market has not been caused solely by the Stamp Duty holiday but lifestyle factors, including a mini baby boom and a desire for more space after lockdown - Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Another twist to 2021 has hit us over the past week, with people queuing up at fuel stations, absurd panic buying and genuine concern for those in the services to be able to access fuel easily. 

I am a property expert and not a fuel or logistics expert, however what seems like a change in supply has caused the media to create marketing hype and has pushed demand through the roof. Does this sound familiar?

As the UK sees house price growth at 13.2% from June 2020 to June 2021, much debate goes on as to whether the surge for the housing market would run out when the Stamp Duty holiday ends. Many have reported an expected correction or dip in the housing market, but this has been suggested regularly since 2015! 

Jamie Minors, a young estate agent from Norwich wearing a white shirt in the Minors & Brady office, talking to a client

Jamie Minors, managing director of Minors & Brady, which has just opened its fifth branch on Unthank Road in Norwich - Credit: Minors & Brady

I distinctly remember having this debate with a gentleman on a viewing in Tombland back in 2016, as he felt prices would drop 30% post-Brexit, due to reports in the media. This gentleman offered 20% below the asking price. Unsurprisingly, he didn’t get the property.

I am immersed in the housing market, seven days a week, 365 days of the year – and this spike has not just been due to Stamp Duty but many other factors: the demand for a study, the work-from-home culture, the ‘he/she shed’ in the garden, the need for first-time buyers to have their own space, cheap borrowing, the mini baby boom... The list goes on.

Two wooden houses and a green good positive trend on easel. Real estate value increase. Rising price

We are not seeing the market drying up - nor will we any time soon - Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

As my colleagues and I get up early to ensure we have sufficient fuel for our back-to-back valuation and viewing diaries each day, we are not seeing the market dip – nor will it anytime soon. 

Things have cooled slightly, and need to cool further for sustainable house price growth, as a further 13.2% increase in one year is not healthy for our economy. I predict house prices will continue to rise, but by a more ‘normal’ increase of around 3%-4% per annum.

The simplest way for me to describe the housing market to those who ask me? Supply is still not meeting demand and while there is affordable lending available, house prices will continue to increase until this changes.

We are not building enough homes, buyers of all shapes and sizes are still registering with us in abundance and there are incredible fixed mortgage rate deals at 0.79% over base rate.

Mortgage and loan approved concept: house on a coin pile. planning savings money of coins to buy a

House prices will continue to rise, but by a more ‘normal’ increase of around 3%-4% per annum - Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

From the day-to-day analytics we study and obsess over, all of the above is completely relevant, unless Mr Gove makes big changes. He is tasked with meeting the government’s 300,000 homes built per year target. Interestingly, Mr Gove appealed against a development of 1,500 homes back in 2019, as he was “deeply concerned” about altering the character of his village.

With autumn on our doorstep, I cannot foresee a big overhaul happening, which means we still have an exciting housing market in Norfolk and in the UK. Buyers still want to buy, sellers still want to sell, people are still making huge lifestyle changes following on from the pandemic and the banks and lenders are still offering cheap borrowing.
 
Autumn is still a fantastic time to sell your home, as a higher proportion of serious and ready-to-go buyers enter the market, with some hoping to get moved before Christmas.  

If you are thinking of making a lifestyle change and want a marketing appraisal and valuation of your home, get in touch with one of my local branches, or me personally at our Unthank Road branch on 01603 365085.

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