East of England first-time buyer house prices ‘could hit the roof by mid-century’
PUBLISHED: 00:10 22 February 2019
© chris rawlings 2017
Getting your foot on the housing ladder in the East of England could cost an eye-watering £1.9m by the middle of this century, making it the most expensive region in the country to find your first home outside London, figures suggest.
London estate agents Benham and Reeves looked at historic first-time buyer house price data from the Land Registry and projected monthly rises region-by-region forward 34 years to see what homes prices might look like.
In the East of England, the average first-time buyer house price was £159,417 in January 2012, rising to £241,259 in December 2018. The agency predicts this could rise to £1,909,148 by 2052.
At the moment, the south east of England out-pegs the East of England with average prices for first-time buyers at £173,993 in January 2012, rising to £259,567 in December 2018, but the figures suggest that situation will be reversed, with the east topping the table outside the capital.
London, the most expensive property market in the country, saw first-time buyers snapping up homes in January 2012 for an average £256,169, and in December 2018 for an average £412,679. By 2052, that figure is predicted to soar to £4,562,327.
The only region to rival the East of England outside of London for the most expensive first-time homes would be the south east, where average first-time buyer prices are expected to average the slightly lower figure of £1,907,352 by 2052.
The cheapest place to buy a home by mid-century would be the north east, at £210,739, up from £110,645 today.
Average first-time prices in England were £145,361 in January 2012, rising to £207,526 by December 2018. By 2052, they may be £1,214,381, according to Benham and Reeves.
In London, Kensington could be toppled as the capital’s most expensive borough for first-time buyers. Despite the much higher price of property today, the slower rate of growth in first time buyer property prices in the last seven years means Waltham Forest could overtake it with a staggering average house price of £11.5m by 2052.
Kensington would still rank second with an average first time buyer house price of just under £8.4m, with Hackney (£6.8m), Westminster (£6.8m) and Haringey (£6.6m) all home to some of the highest prices when getting on the future ladder.
Benham and Reeves director, Marc von Grundherr, said: “This research considers the ups and downs of the first-time buyer market historically and how things could play out for the generation of first-time buyers being born today if these trends were to repeat themselves.
“Of course, it’s impossible to predict the future of the UK property market, particularly given the current turbulence caused by wider economic and political factors, however, this research acts as a warning of what could happen if we continue to fail in the delivery of affordable starter homes.
“Not only does it show the huge jump in prices over previous years but how this could worsen further down the line.
“While we hope that prices won’t reach these dizzying heights, we’ve certainly seen stranger things happen across the UK property market in the last 34 years, so who knows what the next 34 may bring.”