Survival or bust for Norwich City

Johan Elmander (left) and Gary Hooper (right) can not believe it as Cardiff take the lead. Johan Elmander (left) and Gary Hooper (right) can not believe it as Cardiff take the lead.

Monday, February 17, 2014
3:02 PM

What’s more straightforward than predicting the future? MICHAEL BAILEY tees up our panel of fans, columnists and correspondents to tell us how Norwich City’s season will end.

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It’s a fraught process, but someone’s got to do it – predicting how the Premier League season will finish for the Canaries. And that is fitting, as at the moment the final third of the top-flight season looks all set to be just as fraught.

First to take in are the 12 games left for City to play. The final four have been a topic of chatter among Norwich fans since the fixture list was first unveiled in June. All that appears to mean from here on in is Chris Hughton’s men have got to get going and quickly once their FA Cup-enforced break is over.

The second part is the issue of how many points it will take to secure anything from 17th or higher – and history can help us to a degree with this one.

Since the Premier League was nipped down to 20 teams, the average points for 18th – and relegation – is 36 points. Of course, some have stayed up with 34, others have gone down topping 40. We’re two-thirds through this term and 17th/ 18th share 24 points. That makes you think we’re on for a bang average 36-point relegation cut-off.

No doubt a few teams will hope it’s fewer – let’s see what our first two pundits predict.

What the pundits predict:

• Paddy Davitt – chief Norwich City writer

(Norwich City’s score first)

Feb 23 Spurs (H) D 1-1

Mar 2 Aston Villa (A) W 2-1

Mar 8 Stoke (H) W 2-0

Mar 15 Southampton (A) L 0-2

Mar 22 Sunderland (H) D 1-1

Mar 29 Swansea (A) L 1-2

Apr 5 West Brom (H) W 3-1

Apr 12 Fulham (A) L 0-2

Apr 19 Liverpool (H) L 1-4

Apr 26 Man Utd (A) L 1-3

May 3 Chelsea (A) L 0-3

May 11 Arsenal (H) D 1-1

Points picked up: 12

City’s final tally: 37 – SAFE

Will City survive, how and why? Paddy says: Norwich never do things the easy way, which is why you can see a scenario where they need something from the final game. For that to happen Arsenal’s title challenge will have to be over. Plenty of imponderables I know, but when was the survival scrap ever predictable?

• David Powles – City fan and columnist

(Norwich City’s score first)

Feb 23 Spurs (H) D 1-1

Mar 2 Aston Villa (A) L 1-2

Mar 8 Stoke (H) W 2-0

Mar 15 Southampton (A) D 2-2

Mar 22 Sunderland (H) W 3-0

Mar 29 Swansea (A) W 1-0

Apr 5 West Brom (H) D 0-0

Apr 12 Fulham (A) L 0-2

Apr 19 Liverpool (H) L 1-2

Apr 26 Man Utd (A) L 0-2

May 3 Chelsea (A) L 0-3

May 11 Arsenal (H) D 2-2

Points picked up: 13

City’s final tally: 38 – SAFE

Will City survive, how and why? David says: It will be close but I’ve always felt Norwich will be safe – and still do. Much of that is because of the teams around us; Fulham, Cardiff and West Brom are my tips for the drop. A five-game unbeaten run in March will see us home (I hope).

Tomorrow: Michael Bailey and Chris Lakey give their verdicts.

What do you think? Leave your predictions using the comment section below.

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47 comments

  • All this fear and foreboding. Rather depressing. So, changing the subject, here's a thing. The little Manc scouser with a face like a melted wellie and BP's old hair piece, has won a modest pay rise, I see. From £180K to £300k per week. My daughter is slightly younger than him, works slightly harder than him ( as a teaching assistant) and earns 0.001% of what he does. I don't think it's possible to actually spend (split infinitive, oops) that much money, is it? Beyond obscene. And who's paying for this? The fans, of course, when they pay inflated prices at the turnstiles and silly money for their pay per poo subscriptions. It's bad enough that the "English" premier league clubs are, in large part, owned and managed by foreigners and largely played by players whose names end in " ic". But does it take so much money to keep what few talented English players we have from fleeing abroad to ply their trade? Soon you'll need to be as wealthy to watch live PL football as you have to be to send your children to a posh school or have a night at the opera. But at least opera goers and public school pupils make no pretence at being our national pastime, accessible to all (flat caps and bowlers alike). Makes me so angry. I need to lie down now.

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    User Removed

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Yep, Dave, spot on. If we can't score goals we can't win games. Our track record so far this season is frankly abysmal. Are we really to believe at this late, late, stage somehow Hughton and his misfiring team will suddenly, miraculously, come good? I would love to be proved wrong but our record under Hughton this season and the way he has set up his teams is just woeful. He can't or won't change his system so the sequences is almost certain to go on and on, ending in relegation.

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    malaga flier

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Plus we have "Mr Motivator" driving the bus, the guy with no plan B.

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    A fine city

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Bob Hope and No hope! Following something like one win in 13. How can we then get three in 12 games at a time we have been unable to score for toffees all season. Dooooomed I tell ye, doooooomed!

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    A fine city

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • I've got more points on my licence than ncfc will pick up between now and the end of the season.

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    blue tractor

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Just one point......We need to score Goals to win games and i cannot see where they are coming from????

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    dave123

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Kinda freaky but I agreed with Paddy on every game except the villa away game. Can only see that being a loss to blooming Lambert & co....again.....its like a yearly ritual I do going to Fulham & Villa and coming away livid....especially Fulham. Anyway, because I agree with Paddy on every game except Villa, thats 3pts less on my prediction tally & therefore hence why im very worried about our future. Thats if we win the winnable home games & get a few surprise draws along the way.

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    Mattias333

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Yes Waclor, West Ham went down with 42 points which is highest ever. However, NCFC supporters might be more interested in the lowest points you can gain and survive. That takes us back to 200910 when 31 would have been enough (4th bottom was on 32). However, the bottom three that year were exceptionally poor. One stat I am working on is how many teams have gone down after being on 25pts from 26 games. Will get back on that one but it looks encouraging so far

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    Lincs Canary

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • stoke,sunderland and wba games have got to yield 9 pts,no question.Draws with spurs,villa,swansea,southampton and fulham= 39 pts,safe??

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    tonyb

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • With the idiot we have in charge along with the two stooges helping him, the only way we will get three points (you have to score goals to win games), is if the team bus is caught doing 100 mph down the A11

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    oldtimer

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Steely I think West Ham once went down with 42 points but stand to be corrected by Lincs (Statto),

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    waclor

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • We didnt think we would draw against Man C, but ........

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    sharky

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Mr Powles: I think draws against Arsenal and Spurs are optimistic, but Fulham in their current state is a potential victory, but then you did predict Norwich would finish above Liverpool earlier in the season, so I do take your predictions with a pinch of salt!

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    Pagey

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • Blue tractor.....Worry about your own c..p team and the prospect of administration as your mob have not paid there suppliers again!!!

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    dave123

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Both Archant pundit predictions have City getting seven points from Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom at home. A win and two draws is more likely, I suggest. One point at either Aston Villa or Swansea. That is six points only. Add a surprise win and a draw from somewhere. Ten points then. City go down. Can City prove me wrong and win three matches or even four?

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    Capri

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Chief Writer Paddy is awesome in his Seership. Likewise in his abuse of the English language. He must avoid the need of a proper job. So just stay nice and safe, young man. Sad though it may be that you are a line-toeing lickspittle at such a young age.

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    Mad Brewer

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • I only wish I was so hopeful. I have always wanted to support CH. In fact I do but from day one I have queried the point or value of Trollope. I was more disappointed to see Culverhouse leave than Lambert to be honest. If Norwich survive this season CH must go or be supported by a new coaching set up. I would be very pleased to see Meulensteen, Phelan, Adams given a run and I wonder what has happened to David Williams. I felt he was a fine No 10 and was effective as a coach. Also Bowen.

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    RichardGarratt

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • LC funny you were watching a bowls match that day as I avoided the match by playing bowls. Wonder if it was the same match! Premer league would never allow the same to happen these days and Sunderland very much still in deep trouble.

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    DJ_FRAMBOISE

    Saturday, February 22, 2014

  • We have scored just 19 goals in 26 games (0.73 goalsgame) but these two think that we're going to score 13 in the next 12 (1.08 goalsgame. I hope that they're correct but I don't see where they're coming from. Lets face it, if someone looks like they might score the clown in charge will substitute them!

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    baguio

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • So based on all of that we survive and stay in the premiership.....Can I ask if we do can we have a new manager....someone who likes to attack.....P L E A S E.......!!!!!!

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    Colby Army!

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Lincs Canary, G`day. I was so pleased with Mick Channon scoring the goal at Chelsea, which I thought had saved our season, I gave my second son `Michael` as a middle name. Then the skullduggery. A sales executive (!) used to come and see me periodically to flog us bits & pieces for the brewing process. He was an Evertonian and avid fan. I called him in and told him we`d be buying nothing more from them until Norwich were back in the Prem! Yes, I remember JFK`s assassination, 1963. I was but a lad of 15 then. Btw, I`m not really that nasty - I took the Toffee over to the pub & bought him a beer on the understanding he never mentioned Everton within my earshot, and lost his Scouse accent. To think I finished my formal education in Coventry! If I`d only had a crystal ball.

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    Mad Brewer

    Wednesday, February 19, 2014

  • I could have included Becchio but as Hugton never gives him a chance, he does not really count as a Norwich player.

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    waclor

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • over optimistic, doomed, were all doomed its all to late !

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    Dave

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • PS; LincsCan, I hope the EPL authorities do not let that `match-stacking` business happen again. I still have nightmares about Coventry`s 3 games in hand yielding 9 points when we had already finished our season while 8 pts ahead of them. And they beat the Champions-Elect, Everton (who were `On the Beach` by then). Badness :-((

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    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • It's now Tuesday so may I be the first to say Hoof the Hoot today? Ok Hoof The Hoot.

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    waclor

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • OK, the stats show that teams who have accumulated 25pts from 26 games do not go down. Some in fact have gone on to survive with ease. Others have clung on to life by virtue of last game results and then had to rely on goal difference (see my previous post on gd). Not a stat to hang your hat on but it offers hope, which just now seems in short supply.

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    Lincs Canary

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • Look, it's not difficult. The chief divot and another journo who no one's heard of both work for our local paper which has a cast iron duty to support our li'l ole home-spun football team. If their predictions were anything other than wildly optimistic, they'd never get into the boot room, the board room or the conference room at the Carra ever again. Of course they won't get 38 points based on past results and present manager. I'd be over the moon (Brian) if they did, but realistically it's now all over bar the sackings and the sales. Great shame.

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    User Removed

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Since my pre-season prediction now looks like it was compiled by Dubai Canary after a triple ration of Attar of Roses tinctured Lotuses in Aspic, washed down with lashings of Pollyanna Potion, I am reluctant to even try and guess what the next 12 games might bring us. While our Resident Statistician is on board (Morning, Lincs!), I reckon our fate this season could`ve been sealed by the stark stat that, from 6 `winnable` games vs Hull, Villa, Cardiff (twice), Fulham and WHU, we garnered 1 whole point and scored just twice, while our defensively obsessed manager`s steely defence conceded 8, keeping 1 `clean sheet`. Looking forward to the stats update, LincsCan. I wonder if 34 points will be enough this time.... STOP IT! Don`t even think about it.

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    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • Optimistically Spurs - 0 AV - 1 Stoke 3 S'hampton - 0 Sdland - 3 Swans - 1 WB - 3 Fulham - 3 The rest - 0 TOTAL = 39

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    Cecil

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • for relpace read replace. sorry

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    wivenhoebudgie

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • 9 points i reckon..left it too late and missed out on a lot of 6 pointers mid way thru the season..Should have sacked hoots after draw with cardiff at home and rebuilt in january..but board to cheap

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    AC Canary

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Ooops! You beat me to it, LC. I suppose we could extract a bit of hope from your stat, but we do have that awesome final 4 games, preceded by a visit to our Nemesis, the Mighty Fulham. Never mind, we have easily `winnable` games vs Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, Swansea, WBA (they might not be on the beach this time, though) and feeble Fulham. That`s 18 points. Isn`t it? Add a couple of draws (say Soton and Spurs) and we`re on 45 points, almost back to where Lambo left us. Easy-peasy. What are we all worrying about? PS. Thanks, Dubai, for that rush delivery of Yabba Abu Dhabi Elixir. More potent than your Prescription Pollyanna Potion, but lacks the rounded nuances of palate and aroma. Still, a cheeky little Drink of Delusion. Went down well with a Tesco Market Value Meat & Potato Pie. Such fun.

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    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • We need to beat Villa for once....please!

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    GossVolley

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • We've been in slow motion free fall since Xmas, our only saviour is that there are three worse teams than us, our performances have been slightly better, except for the lack of .. you know what..my heart says we'll be safe... but my head says "We're Doomed" on 34pts

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    OLDYELLA

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • While everyone can come up with predictions of results and study past statistics about minimum points for survival, I would rather study the present form and recent past results to see the likelihood of Premiership football next year. As Hughton walks the touchline with his hands in his pockets and the team trot around the field passing square or back, what is missing is the desire, passion and commitment to win. I just don't see it. Not in the actions of the Manager or the performance of the team or the uninspired words of the recent interview with McNally.

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    kenfoggo

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • A draw against Arsenal-hahahahaha!! Dream on.

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    Toxteth O'Grady

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Predicting results, particularly scores, is what makes bookies rich. Punters get rich by placing winning bets like Norwich not losing any of their last four games. If you fancy a bet on NCFC surviving then, as in previous posts, I suggest using goal difference as a measure of their chances because it is a constant gauge to performance. History shows no worse than minus 15 yields the points required. The current bottom two teams are minus 32 and minus 25 and look doomed. We are next worse on minus 20, CP minus 16, Stoke minus 14. Perhaps then a bet too far. On another thread, has anyone else noticed how Sunderland are postponing future games and piling up fixtures. Are they Coventry in disguise?

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    Lincs Canary

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Plus we have "Mr Motivator" driving the bus, the guy with no plan B.

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    A fine city

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Can you really see a draw against Spur's. I suppose those that live in dream land. As they are chaseing top four spot. Same as our chances of a top six place dont think so... Both dreams ending badly i do believe.

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    User Removed

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • It does give a feeling of schardenfreude seeing Coventry play at Northampton in league one. However I have no wish to see Norwich visiting for a league game anytime soon.

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    waclor

    Thursday, February 20, 2014

  • MB, that Coventry escape for me is akin to remembering where you were when Kennedy was shot (if you were around back then). I went down to the park and listened on the radio. It was a beautiful day, church bells in the distance and alone on a bench as I pretended to watch a bowls match while Coventry and Everton conspired to sink us. I still hate them both. This season can't quite repeat that situation because the rule now is all final games have to kick off at the same time

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    Lincs Canary

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • I would say wildly over optimistic predictions. What is the point of trying to predict the actual goals scored ? If Ars@nal are in with a chance winning the title or even needing the CL place are we going to hold them to a draw ? Can't see us beating Sunderland three nil either.

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    Steely Dan

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Blue tractor.....Worry about your own c..p team and the prospect of administration as your mob have not paid there suppliers again!!!

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    dave123

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • Lincs - I think you should be appointed the official statistician to the comment boards. What was the highest point total that a team third bottom has achieved and still been relegated ?

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    Steely Dan

    Monday, February 17, 2014

  • I feel it is all to late for a change now, no time for new manager to sort it all out !! Should have been done a lot sooner.

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    Davyboy

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • quote 'David McNally' in todays mirror via bbc. Canaries will move swiftly to relpace CH if our prem future is threatened. IF , I ask you IF !!!

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    wivenhoebudgie

    Tuesday, February 18, 2014

  • I am reliably informed from a friend inside Anglia Television that Hughton is fronting a special programme next Tuesday on turning over pancakes. Apparently he is very good at it.

    Report this comment

    waclor

    Monday, February 17, 2014

The views expressed in the above comments do not necessarily reflect the views of this site

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