Rare constituency poll suggests Labour would win Great Yarmouth - and UKIP would come second

Norfolk County Council elections.
The Great Yarmouth election count at the town hall.
UKIP winners, Rex Parkinson-Hare, Matthew Smith, Alan Grey and Colin Aldred.

Picture: James Bass Norfolk County Council elections. The Great Yarmouth election count at the town hall. UKIP winners, Rex Parkinson-Hare, Matthew Smith, Alan Grey and Colin Aldred. Picture: James Bass

Monday, December 16, 2013
11:41 PM

A rare constituency poll has put the UK Independence Party a just seven percentage points behind Labour, and ahead of the Tories.

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A rare constituency poll has put the UK Independence Party just seven percentage points behind Labour, and ahead of the Tories.

Research by the polling firm Survation, commissioned by UKIP party donor Alan Bown, suggests if a general election was held tomorrow Labour candidate Lara Norris would win the seat with 37pc of the vote, with UKIP coming second.

The anti-Europe party has increased its vote in the Norfolk coastal town from 5pc in the 2010 to 30pc, the poll shows.

It is one of eight constituency surveys which have been paid for by UKIP to work out where it should direct resources and stand candidates, in a bid to win its first Westminster seat in 2015.

There is still a question mark over where leader Nigel Farage will stand, but Matthew Smith, UKIP county councillor for Gorleston St Andrew’s division, is currently the prospective candidate for Great Yarmouth and said he would not stand aside.

Mr Smith said: “This poll is encouraging and shows that Labour cannot take for granted that they will win this seat back. Having parachuted in a candidate from Luton, who works for an MP far away from here, they will have a real fight on their hands from myself as a local man and UKIP candidate, not the sitting MP Brandon Lewis, at the next general election”

The first of the results, released last month, showed UKIP were in second place in Thanet South, where Tory MP Laura Sandys last month announced she would stand down at the next election.

Great Yarmouth MP Brandon Lewis would win 28pc of the vote in Great Yarmouth, compared with 43pc in 2010, Survation found. But the Liberal Democrats would take just 4pc of the vote.

20 comments

  • Anyone who actually has the time and inclination to sit and post on this article, will probably have already made their mind up as to who they will vote for in 2015. But it is interesting to see which party has the most active digital activists nonetheless. It annoys me however when blatant conservatives make comments such as "UKIP splits the conservative vote", Brandon Lewis has said this several times as has the conservative Councillors. These votes are in fact people, they are not the Conservatives vote, they are free thinking members of the public and any assumption that they belong to one party is simply insulting.

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    Chris Corby

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • I don`t think this will come as a major surprise to anyone who lives in the Borough. Labour gained control of the council because UKIP split the Tory vote. The same will probably happen again in 2015. Disaffection about immigration being the main reason why people are turning to UKIP. Local people have just about had enough. But if Labour win the seat then historically the council will become Tory run again. Bit like night and day in Yarmouth. Whichever party is in opposition usually controls the council.

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    BG

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • "V" you are wrong, only half the survey was from the town and the other half was from outlying areas (Ormesby, Flegg, Caister). It is a pretty damning report for our MP, the conservatives dont stand a chance of winning here, only UKIP can beat Labour now.

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    Chris Corby

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • No, only 4 wards were polled; 507 people...

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    Mellifluous

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Wherever nuLabour are ahead in the polls you'll find vast areas of benefits dependent subcultures , it's not rocket science - anyone enjoying a benefits funded lifestyle want an administration that's not going to rock the boat.

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    Tudor Bushe

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • more publicity given to unpopular party politics and their electioneering by a paper that only supports such game play with our life's, all else is wiped under the cloth.

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    ingo wagenknecht

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • If Nigel Farage (or his German wife) contests this seat, my money is on UKIP winning

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    Raymond the Fox

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • In line with racist "Planet Thanet".......makes sense!!!

    Report this comment

    Sportswagon

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • No surprise that Planet Thanet would vote for them, but GY???

    Report this comment

    Sportswagon

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • One swallow does not make a Summer. The General Election is eighteen months away. The effect of the new system of individual elector registration to be introduced after the Euro elections is unpredictable. The one thing that is clear is that at the moment the Liberal Democrats are out of the picture. However, close three-way fights produce odd results - remember Norwich South in 2010.

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    Old Hand

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • No poll here in the north of the borough.People are pretty disillusioned with what is going on in GY and I think some of them have long enough memories to know that Wright was a Labour equivalent of Lewis-useless- and long enough memories to know who is to blame for the current demography of Yarmouth town. If the disillusionment of the relatively intelligent young is enough to overcome their naturally left wing leanings and to make them vote, I reckon the National Front could win Yarmouth, never mind UKIP Dont forget in a general election only British and Irish citizens have a right to vote, unlike local government elections. When young and old despise their town they are going to blame the government.

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    Daisy Roots

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Funny how it was just Yarmouth asked, and not the outlying parishes. This means that they dont care about the outer areas, just Yarmouth.

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    "V"

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Okay, where did they get the figures from, no-one asked me and I live in Yarmouth. Still saying that, I think their probably right, it's even possible they could win.

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    Spooky

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Of course it was, look who funded the polling, they wanted the best possible 'headline'

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    Mellifluous

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Labour, the party for benefit claimants and the do gooding brigade.

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    wes1975

    Wednesday, December 18, 2013

  • @ Chris Corby - This is exactly what happened in Yarmouth. The UKIP party did indeed split the conservative vote. The evidence is plain for everyone to see. You may not like the term but it is what happened and as a consequence Labour gained control of our council by default. The same thing will happen again in the 2015 General Election which is why the result will be one of the most unpredictable for decades.

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    BG

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • When a constituency poll is taken then the constituency is polled. If your "outlying parishes" are within the constituency boundaries then they will have been polled. Probably where the people with six fingers and knuckles trailing on the floor who form the tiny Tory rump live.

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    alecto

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • David Cameron and Theressa May have shown that Tories don't really want to tackle immigration or the EU. Labour are pro immigration and the EU and are saddled with Ed Balls - somebody who blatantly doesn't know anything about economics. The Lib-Dems are just lame ducks and UKIP are just far-right wing Tories. Sadly there's just isn't a party in our democracy that I want to vote for.

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    DWW25

    Friday, December 20, 2013

  • No surprise that Planet Thanet would vote for them, but GY???

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    Sportswagon

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

  • Chris. None of the southern areas though ?. Shows just what they think of them. Just cash cows with no representation whatsoever.

    Report this comment

    "V"

    Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The views expressed in the above comments do not necessarily reflect the views of this site

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