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We are masters of our own climatic destiny.
The extent to which
the climate is set to change
depends on our ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The extent
to which a change in climate will affect our lives in Norfolk depends
on our ability to adapt to it.
To predict the impacts
of climate change on Norfolk, by say 2050, is to assume we know
the extent to which we will have mitigated against, and adapted
to, a warming climate. It assumes we understand future culture,
politics, technology and economy - and can assess the extent to
which each of these will push for a reduction of our impact on the
global climate, or provides an opportunity to adapt to it. This
is an impossible task.
As a society what
we can do, and what the University of East Anglia have started to
do in a new piece of research, is to look at the possible effect
of society drivers (namely: the market, government, individuals
and collective action) on the future climate. The research used
discussions with local stakeholders to assess how each of these
drivers may reduce (or increase) stakeholder impact on the environment.
The value of understanding
the future is huge. But the future is uncertain, both socially and
climatically. This new approach to research allows stakeholders
to critically assess the various influences society has on their
operations, and in turn the impact their operations have on the
environment. And it essentially allows us assess what sort of society
we would like to see in Norfolk by 2050.
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