Opinion: If house prices continue to double every 10 years, by 2019 the average price will be £252k
PUBLISHED: 15:43 11 August 2017 | UPDATED: 11:05 31 August 2017
© 2016 John Watt
As Neymar goes to PSG “looking for a new challenge” (how to spend £200m), I recall it was 1979 when Trevor Francis was sold to Nottingham Forest as the first £1m player.
Francis won two European Cups with Forest at a time when the average house price was £21,996. If the same rate of inflation was applied to house prices as top flight footballers then average house prices today would be £4,399,200 and only footballers would be able to afford them.
Today, the Land Registry show that the average UK house price is now £220,713, which is a 10-fold increase over 38 years. If average house prices continue to more or less double every 10 years then by 2019 the average price will be £252,000.
Feature writers in national papers are trying to make baby boomers feel guilty about being born in a time when, as the journalists see it, buying a house was easy and risk free, with prices going up and up in value. They see it as a time when everyone had secure jobs, with actual pay rises, company pensions and baby boomers were not saddled with massive student debts.
The reality is somewhat different. In 1979 there was massive inflation and the steps taken by the new Thatcher government caused property prices to stall if not quite fall. John Major’s attempt to shadow the German Mark saw base rates rise to 15pc (actual mortgage rates could be 17pc or more) and prices fall by up to 40pc and 50,000 repossessions a year compared to 7,700 in 2016.
The banking collapse of 2007 also saw a fall in prices, though as base rates to fell to 1pc, there was not the tragic number of repossessions that we saw in the early nineties.
But for every bust there is usually a boom, and recent figures published by Carter Jonas show that London prices have risen by 70pc since 2007.
What may be a little surprising is that East Anglia’s prices have risen by 41pc, which is higher than the Home Counties where prices have gone up by just 37pc. So there will be ups and downs, owning a property can be a roller coaster on the price front but if you are buying a property as a secure base for you and your family it is still the thing to do.
A new home is certainly a better investment than Ricky van Wolfswinkel!
This column is sponsored by Newbury New Homes, 01603 520000.